Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Coco Gauff 0 - Mirra Andreeva 0. Coco Gauff is favored with a 62.8% win probability.
Coco Gauff
1883
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Mirra Andreeva
1811
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Coco GauffMirra Andreeva
Clay
Surface
WTA Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.8% (2,120 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mirra Andreeva
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff leads by 72 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Mirra Andreeva SPW
51.6%
Below tour avg
Coco Gauff SPW
56.7%
Above tour avg
● Coco Gauff has a significant serve advantage (+5.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mirra Andreeva ML
-115
Model: 37%
Edge: -16.3%
Coco Gauff ML
+102
Model: 63%
Edge: +13.3%
Model Projection
Coco Gauff ML +102 · +13.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Coco Gauff has a moderate 72-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Coco Gauff has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coco Gauff 62.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →