Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk prediction for June 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marta Kostyuk 0 - Mirra Andreeva 0. Mirra Andreeva is favored with a 58.5% win probability.
Marta Kostyuk
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Mirra Andreeva
1811
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marta KostyukMirra Andreeva
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (4,377 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mirra Andreeva
Marta Kostyuk
Mirra Andreeva leads by 127 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Mirra Andreeva SPW
55.7%
Below tour avg
Marta Kostyuk SPW
52.5%
Below tour avg
● Mirra Andreeva has a significant serve advantage (+3.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mirra Andreeva ML
+116
Model: 58%
Edge: +12.2%
Marta Kostyuk ML
-128
Model: 42%
Edge: -14.7%
Model Projection
Mirra Andreeva ML +116 · +12.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Mirra Andreeva holds a commanding 127-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mirra Andreeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mirra Andreeva 58.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →