Moez Echargui vs Edas Butvilas prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Edas Butvilas 0 - Moez Echargui 0. Moez Echargui is favored with a 51.2% win probability.
Edas Butvilas
1531
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Moez Echargui
1552
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Edas ButvilasMoez Echargui
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Moez Echargui
Edas Butvilas
Moez Echargui leads by 22 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Moez Echargui SPW
65.9%
Above tour avg
Edas Butvilas SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Moez Echargui ML
+228
Model: 51%
Edge: +20.7%
Edas Butvilas ML
-276
Model: 49%
Edge: -24.6%
Model Projection
Moez Echargui ML +228 · +20.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (22-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Moez Echargui has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Moez Echargui 51.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →