Naomi Osaka vs Elsa Jacquemot prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Elsa Jacquemot 0 - Naomi Osaka 0. Naomi Osaka is favored with a 76.6% win probability.
Elsa Jacquemot
1491
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Naomi Osaka
1654
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Elsa JacquemotNaomi Osaka
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.5% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Naomi Osaka
Elsa Jacquemot
Naomi Osaka leads by 162 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Naomi Osaka SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Elsa Jacquemot SPW
56.7%
Above tour avg
● Naomi Osaka has a significant serve advantage (+7.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Naomi Osaka ML
-1005
Model: 77%
Edge: -14.3%
Elsa Jacquemot ML
+622
Model: 23%
Edge: +9.5%
Model Projection
Elsa Jacquemot ML +622 · +9.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Naomi Osaka holds a commanding 162-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Naomi Osaka has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Naomi Osaka at 77%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Naomi Osaka 76.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →