Nicolas Mejia vs Henrique Rocha prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Henrique Rocha 0 - Nicolas Mejia 0. Henrique Rocha is favored with a 58.4% win probability.
Henrique Rocha
1553
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Nicolas Mejia
1420
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Henrique RochaNicolas Mejia
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Nicolas Mejia
Henrique Rocha
Henrique Rocha leads by 133 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Nicolas Mejia SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
Henrique Rocha SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Nicolas Mejia ML
+282
Model: 42%
Edge: +15.4%
Henrique Rocha ML
-348
Model: 58%
Edge: -19.3%
Model Projection
Nicolas Mejia ML +282 · +15.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Henrique Rocha holds a commanding 133-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Henrique Rocha has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henrique Rocha 58.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →