Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Andrea Pellegrino prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Pellegrino 0 - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 0. Andrea Pellegrino is favored with a 57.9% win probability.
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran
1411
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea PellegrinoNicolas Moreno De Alboran
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,366 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran
Andrea Pellegrino
Andrea Pellegrino leads by 109 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran SPW
59.7%
Below tour avg
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran ML
+350
Model: 42%
Edge: +19.9%
Andrea Pellegrino ML
-459
Model: 58%
Edge: -24.2%
Model Projection
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran ML +350 · +19.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrea Pellegrino holds a commanding 109-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrea Pellegrino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrea Pellegrino 57.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →