Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Marta Kostyuk prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marta Kostyuk 0 - Oksana Selekhmeteva 0. Marta Kostyuk is favored with a 55.5% win probability.
Marta Kostyuk
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Oksana Selekhmeteva
1551
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marta KostyukOksana Selekhmeteva
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,855 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Oksana Selekhmeteva
Marta Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk leads by 133 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Oksana Selekhmeteva SPW
54.7%
Below tour avg
Marta Kostyuk SPW
53.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Oksana Selekhmeteva ML
+933
Model: 44%
Edge: +34.9%
Marta Kostyuk ML
-1532
Model: 56%
Edge: -38.4%
Model Projection
Oksana Selekhmeteva ML +933 · +34.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Marta Kostyuk holds a commanding 133-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Oksana Selekhmeteva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Marta Kostyuk 55.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →