Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis Shapovalov prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Denis Shapovalov 0 - Pablo Carreno Busta 0. Denis Shapovalov is favored with a 64.7% win probability.
Denis Shapovalov
1533
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Pablo Carreno Busta
1485
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Denis ShapovalovPablo Carreno Busta
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Pablo Carreno Busta
Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov leads by 48 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Pablo Carreno Busta SPW
62.6%
Below tour avg
Denis Shapovalov SPW
65.4%
Above tour avg
● Denis Shapovalov has a slight serve edge (+2.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Carreno Busta ML
+266
Model: 35%
Edge: +8.0%
Denis Shapovalov ML
-310
Model: 65%
Edge: -10.9%
Model Projection
Pablo Carreno Busta ML +266 · +8.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Denis Shapovalov has a moderate 48-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Denis Shapovalov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Denis Shapovalov 64.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →