Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael Jodar prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rafael Jodar 0 - Pablo Carreno Busta 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 57.2% win probability.
Rafael Jodar
1548
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Pablo Carreno Busta
1485
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Rafael JodarPablo Carreno Busta
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Pablo Carreno Busta
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar leads by 63 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Pablo Carreno Busta SPW
64.5%
Above tour avg
Rafael Jodar SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Carreno Busta ML
+320
Model: 43%
Edge: +19.0%
Rafael Jodar ML
-368
Model: 57%
Edge: -21.4%
Model Projection
Pablo Carreno Busta ML +320 · +19.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar has a moderate 63-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 57.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →