Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jaime Faria prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaime Faria 0 - Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0. Pablo Llamas Ruiz is favored with a 53.2% win probability.
Jaime Faria
1420
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jaime FariaPablo Llamas Ruiz
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (1,570 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Jaime Faria
Pablo Llamas Ruiz leads by 66 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
Jaime Faria SPW
64.5%
Above tour avg
● Jaime Faria has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
-152
Model: 53%
Edge: -7.1%
Jaime Faria ML
+122
Model: 47%
Edge: +1.7%
Key Matchup Factors
- Pablo Llamas Ruiz has a moderate 66-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jaime Faria has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pablo Llamas Ruiz 53.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →