Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Nicolas Mejia prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Nicolas Mejia 0 - Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0. Pablo Llamas Ruiz is favored with a 54.5% win probability.
Nicolas Mejia
1420
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Nicolas MejiaPablo Llamas Ruiz
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Nicolas Mejia
Pablo Llamas Ruiz leads by 66 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Nicolas Mejia SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Key Matchup Factors
- Pablo Llamas Ruiz has a moderate 66-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Pablo Llamas Ruiz has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pablo Llamas Ruiz 54.5%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →