Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Ugo Blanchet prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ugo Blanchet 0 - Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0. Pablo Llamas Ruiz is favored with a 58.2% win probability.
Ugo Blanchet
1392
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ugo BlanchetPablo Llamas Ruiz
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.4% (2,644 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Ugo Blanchet
Pablo Llamas Ruiz leads by 94 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
Ugo Blanchet SPW
60.2%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
-528
Model: 58%
Edge: -25.8%
Ugo Blanchet ML
+395
Model: 42%
Edge: +21.6%
Model Projection
Ugo Blanchet ML +395 · +21.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Pablo Llamas Ruiz has a moderate 94-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Pablo Llamas Ruiz has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pablo Llamas Ruiz 58.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →