Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Nikoloz Basilashvili prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Nikoloz Basilashvili 0 - Pedro Boscardin Dias 0. Nikoloz Basilashvili is favored with a 56.8% win probability.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
1442
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pedro Boscardin Dias
1483
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Nikoloz BasilashviliPedro Boscardin Dias
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pedro Boscardin Dias
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Pedro Boscardin Dias leads by 41 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pedro Boscardin Dias SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
Nikoloz Basilashvili SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
● Nikoloz Basilashvili has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pedro Boscardin Dias ML
+368
Model: 43%
Edge: +21.8%
Nikoloz Basilashvili ML
-471
Model: 57%
Edge: -25.7%
Model Projection
Pedro Boscardin Dias ML +368 · +21.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Pedro Boscardin Dias has a moderate 41-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Nikoloz Basilashvili has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Nikoloz Basilashvili 56.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →