Pedro Martinez vs Arthur Fery prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Arthur Fery 0 - Pedro Martinez 0. Arthur Fery is favored with a 61.8% win probability.
Arthur Fery
1513
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pedro Martinez
1430
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Arthur FeryPedro Martinez
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pedro Martinez
Arthur Fery
Arthur Fery leads by 83 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pedro Martinez SPW
56.7%
Below tour avg
Arthur Fery SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
● Arthur Fery has a significant serve advantage (+4.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pedro Martinez ML
-121
Model: 38%
Edge: -16.6%
Arthur Fery ML
+102
Model: 62%
Edge: +12.3%
Model Projection
Arthur Fery ML +102 · +12.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fery has a moderate 83-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Fery has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fery 61.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →