Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Jan Choinski prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jan Choinski 0 - Pierre-Hugues Herbert 0. Jan Choinski is favored with a 56.1% win probability.
Jan Choinski
1472
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
1395
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jan ChoinskiPierre-Hugues Herbert
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Jan Choinski
Jan Choinski leads by 78 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert SPW
59.7%
Below tour avg
Jan Choinski SPW
60.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pierre-Hugues Herbert ML
+172
Model: 44%
Edge: +7.2%
Jan Choinski ML
-208
Model: 56%
Edge: -11.5%
Model Projection
Pierre-Hugues Herbert ML +172 · +7.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jan Choinski has a moderate 78-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jan Choinski has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jan Choinski 56.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →