Pol Martin Tiffon vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Pol Martin Tiffon 0. Pol Martin Tiffon is favored with a 62.2% win probability.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1482
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Pol Martin Tiffon
1622
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Llamas RuizPol Martin Tiffon
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Pol Martin Tiffon
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Pol Martin Tiffon leads by 140 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Pol Martin Tiffon SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
58.9%
Below tour avg
● Pol Martin Tiffon has a significant serve advantage (+5.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pol Martin Tiffon ML
+176
Model: 62%
Edge: +26.0%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
-208
Model: 38%
Edge: -29.8%
Model Projection
Pol Martin Tiffon ML +176 · +26.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Pol Martin Tiffon holds a commanding 140-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Pol Martin Tiffon has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pol Martin Tiffon 62.2%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →