Polina Kudermetova vs Anastasia Gasanova prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Anastasia Gasanova 0 - Polina Kudermetova 0. Anastasia Gasanova is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Anastasia Gasanova
1545
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Polina Kudermetova
1616
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Anastasia GasanovaPolina Kudermetova
Hard
Surface
WTA 125K Istanbul - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (1,622 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125K Istanbul - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Polina Kudermetova
Anastasia Gasanova
Polina Kudermetova leads by 70 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Polina Kudermetova SPW
53.3%
Below tour avg
Anastasia Gasanova SPW
57.1%
Above tour avg
● Anastasia Gasanova has a significant serve advantage (+3.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Polina Kudermetova ML
-354
Model: 49%
Edge: -29.4%
Anastasia Gasanova ML
+273
Model: 51%
Edge: +24.6%
Model Projection
Anastasia Gasanova ML +273 · +24.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Polina Kudermetova has a moderate 70-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Anastasia Gasanova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Anastasia Gasanova 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →