Rafael Jodar vs James Duckworth prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects James Duckworth 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 60.6% win probability.
James Duckworth
1460
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
James DuckworthRafael Jodar
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rafael Jodar
James Duckworth
Rafael Jodar leads by 88 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
64.4%
Above tour avg
James Duckworth SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rafael Jodar ML
-2547
Model: 61%
Edge: -35.6%
James Duckworth ML
+1362
Model: 39%
Edge: +32.6%
Model Projection
James Duckworth ML +1362 · +32.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar has a moderate 88-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 60.6%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →