Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Learner Tien 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 52.9% win probability.
Learner Tien
1580
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Learner TienRafael Jodar
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (2,152 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rafael Jodar
Learner Tien
Learner Tien leads by 32 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
Learner Tien SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rafael Jodar ML
-400
Model: 53%
Edge: -27.1%
Learner Tien ML
+300
Model: 47%
Edge: +22.1%
Model Projection
Learner Tien ML +300 · +22.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (32-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 52.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →