Rafael Jodar vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matteo Arnaldi 0 - Rafael Jodar 0. Rafael Jodar is favored with a 61.5% win probability.
Matteo Arnaldi
1506
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Matteo ArnaldiRafael Jodar
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.8% (2,043 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Rafael Jodar
Matteo Arnaldi
Rafael Jodar leads by 42 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Rafael Jodar SPW
61.7%
Below tour avg
Matteo Arnaldi SPW
59.5%
Below tour avg
● Rafael Jodar has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Rafael Jodar ML
-311
Model: 62%
Edge: -14.2%
Matteo Arnaldi ML
+270
Model: 39%
Edge: +11.5%
Model Projection
Matteo Arnaldi ML +270 · +11.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar has a moderate 42-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Rafael Jodar has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rafael Jodar 61.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →