Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin prediction for June 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alexei Popyrin 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Alexei Popyrin is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Alexei Popyrin
1441
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1533
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Alexei PopyrinRaphael Collignon
Grass
Surface
ATP Halle Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (5,344 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Halle Open
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Raphael Collignon
Alexei Popyrin
Raphael Collignon leads by 92 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
Alexei Popyrin SPW
64.7%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raphael Collignon ML
-137
Model: 49%
Edge: -9.2%
Alexei Popyrin ML
+119
Model: 51%
Edge: +5.7%
Model Projection
Alexei Popyrin ML +119 · +5.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon has a moderate 92-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Alexei Popyrin has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexei Popyrin 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →