Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aziz Dougaz 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Aziz Dougaz is favored with a 50.7% win probability.
Aziz Dougaz
1396
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1533
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Aziz DougazRaphael Collignon
Grass
Surface
Halle
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.8% (5,165 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Halle
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Raphael Collignon
Aziz Dougaz
Raphael Collignon leads by 137 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
62.8%
Below tour avg
Aziz Dougaz SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Aziz Dougaz has a slight serve edge (+3.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raphael Collignon ML
-1348
Model: 49%
Edge: -43.8%
Aziz Dougaz ML
+774
Model: 51%
Edge: +39.2%
Model Projection
Aziz Dougaz ML +774 · +39.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon holds a commanding 137-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Aziz Dougaz has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aziz Dougaz 50.7%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →