Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Casper Ruud 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Casper Ruud is favored with a 61.5% win probability.
Casper Ruud
1672
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1623
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Casper RuudRaphael Collignon
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Raphael Collignon
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud leads by 50 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
Casper Ruud SPW
68.8%
Above tour avg
● Casper Ruud has a significant serve advantage (+5.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raphael Collignon ML
-270
Model: 38%
Edge: -34.5%
Casper Ruud ML
+234
Model: 62%
Edge: +31.6%
Model Projection
Casper Ruud ML +234 · +31.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Casper Ruud has a moderate 50-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Casper Ruud has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Casper Ruud 61.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →