Raphael Collignon vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matteo Arnaldi 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Raphael Collignon is favored with a 59.5% win probability.
Matteo Arnaldi
1506
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1501
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Matteo ArnaldiRaphael Collignon
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Raphael Collignon
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi leads by 6 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
60.9%
Below tour avg
Matteo Arnaldi SPW
59.1%
Below tour avg
● Raphael Collignon has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raphael Collignon ML
-180
Model: 60%
Edge: -4.8%
Matteo Arnaldi ML
+159
Model: 40%
Edge: +1.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (6-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Raphael Collignon has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raphael Collignon 59.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →