Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mattia Bellucci 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Mattia Bellucci is favored with a 55.9% win probability.
Mattia Bellucci
1468
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1623
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Mattia BellucciRaphael Collignon
Hard
Surface
Terra Wortmann Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (5,551 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Terra Wortmann Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Raphael Collignon
Mattia Bellucci
Raphael Collignon leads by 155 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
62.5%
Below tour avg
Mattia Bellucci SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
● Mattia Bellucci has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon holds a commanding 155-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Mattia Bellucci has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mattia Bellucci 55.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →