Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Stan Wawrinka 0 - Raul Brancaccio 0. Raul Brancaccio is favored with a 52.0% win probability.
Stan Wawrinka
1420
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Raul Brancaccio
1561
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Stan WawrinkaRaul Brancaccio
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (2,384 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Raul Brancaccio
Stan Wawrinka
Raul Brancaccio leads by 141 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Raul Brancaccio SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
Stan Wawrinka SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
● Stan Wawrinka has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raul Brancaccio ML
-208
Model: 52%
Edge: -15.6%
Stan Wawrinka ML
+183
Model: 48%
Edge: +12.7%
Model Projection
Stan Wawrinka ML +183 · +12.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raul Brancaccio holds a commanding 141-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Stan Wawrinka has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raul Brancaccio 52.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →