Raul Brancaccio vs Tyler Zink prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Tyler Zink 0 - Raul Brancaccio 0. Tyler Zink is favored with a 51.0% win probability.
Tyler Zink
1453
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Raul Brancaccio
1561
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Tyler ZinkRaul Brancaccio
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,277 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Raul Brancaccio
Tyler Zink
Raul Brancaccio leads by 108 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Raul Brancaccio SPW
59.6%
Below tour avg
Tyler Zink SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raul Brancaccio ML
-165
Model: 49%
Edge: -13.2%
Tyler Zink ML
+135
Model: 51%
Edge: +8.4%
Model Projection
Tyler Zink ML +135 · +8.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raul Brancaccio holds a commanding 108-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Tyler Zink has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Tyler Zink 51.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →