Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Brandon Nakashima 0 - Roberto Bautista Agut 0. Brandon Nakashima is favored with a 65.5% win probability.
Brandon Nakashima
1556
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Roberto Bautista Agut
1485
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Brandon NakashimaRoberto Bautista Agut
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (1,969 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Roberto Bautista Agut
Brandon Nakashima
Brandon Nakashima leads by 71 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Roberto Bautista Agut SPW
58.4%
Below tour avg
Brandon Nakashima SPW
62.7%
Below tour avg
● Brandon Nakashima has a significant serve advantage (+4.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roberto Bautista Agut ML
+158
Model: 34%
Edge: -4.2%
Brandon Nakashima ML
-178
Model: 66%
Edge: +1.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Brandon Nakashima has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Brandon Nakashima has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Brandon Nakashima at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brandon Nakashima 65.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →