Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Marcos Giron prediction for June 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marcos Giron 0 - Roberto Bautista-Agut 0. Roberto Bautista-Agut is favored with a 54.8% win probability.
Marcos Giron
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Roberto Bautista-Agut
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marcos GironRoberto Bautista-Agut
Clay
Surface
Stuttgart
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (4,823 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Stuttgart
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Roberto Bautista-Agut
Marcos Giron
Roberto Bautista-Agut leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Roberto Bautista-Agut SPW
61.3%
Below tour avg
Marcos Giron SPW
61.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roberto Bautista-Agut ML
+115
Model: 55%
Edge: +8.3%
Marcos Giron ML
-140
Model: 45%
Edge: -13.2%
Model Projection
Roberto Bautista-Agut ML +115 · +8.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Roberto Bautista-Agut has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Roberto Bautista-Agut 54.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →