Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Maestrelli prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Francesco Maestrelli 0 - Roberto Carballes Baena 0. Francesco Maestrelli is favored with a 60.4% win probability.
Francesco Maestrelli
1529
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Roberto Carballes Baena
1428
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Francesco MaestrelliRoberto Carballes Baena
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Roberto Carballes Baena
Francesco Maestrelli
Francesco Maestrelli leads by 101 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Roberto Carballes Baena SPW
57.9%
Below tour avg
Francesco Maestrelli SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
● Francesco Maestrelli has a significant serve advantage (+3.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roberto Carballes Baena ML
-193
Model: 40%
Edge: -26.2%
Francesco Maestrelli ML
+163
Model: 60%
Edge: +22.3%
Model Projection
Francesco Maestrelli ML +163 · +22.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Francesco Maestrelli holds a commanding 101-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Francesco Maestrelli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Francesco Maestrelli 60.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →