Roberto Carballes Baena vs Mackenzie McDonald prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mackenzie McDonald 0 - Roberto Carballes Baena 0. Mackenzie McDonald is favored with a 61.6% win probability.
Mackenzie McDonald
1438
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Roberto Carballes Baena
1448
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Mackenzie McDonaldRoberto Carballes Baena
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Roberto Carballes Baena
Mackenzie McDonald
Roberto Carballes Baena leads by 10 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Roberto Carballes Baena SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
Mackenzie McDonald SPW
64.5%
Above tour avg
● Mackenzie McDonald has a significant serve advantage (+3.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roberto Carballes Baena ML
+178
Model: 38%
Edge: +2.4%
Mackenzie McDonald ML
-216
Model: 62%
Edge: -6.7%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (10-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Mackenzie McDonald has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mackenzie McDonald 61.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →