Roberto Carballes Baena vs Mark Ceban prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mark Ceban 0 - Roberto Carballes Baena 0. Roberto Carballes Baena is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Mark Ceban
1500
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Roberto Carballes Baena
1500
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Mark CebanRoberto Carballes Baena
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (6,036 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Roberto Carballes Baena
Mark Ceban
Roberto Carballes Baena leads by 0 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Roberto Carballes Baena SPW
66.0%
Above tour avg
Mark Ceban SPW
67.0%
Above tour avg
● Mark Ceban has a slight serve edge (+1.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roberto Carballes Baena ML
-866
Model: 51%
Edge: -38.3%
Mark Ceban ML
+575
Model: 49%
Edge: +33.8%
Model Projection
Mark Ceban ML +575 · +33.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Mark Ceban has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Roberto Carballes Baena 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →