Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ajla Tomljanovic 0 - Robin Montgomery 0. Ajla Tomljanovic is favored with a 53.5% win probability.
Ajla Tomljanovic
1490
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Robin Montgomery
1493
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Ajla TomljanovicRobin Montgomery
Hard
Surface
S-Hertogenbosch
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.9% (5,165 games)
Match Context
Tournament
S-Hertogenbosch
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Robin Montgomery
Ajla Tomljanovic
Robin Montgomery leads by 3 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Robin Montgomery SPW
55.9%
Below tour avg
Ajla Tomljanovic SPW
57.1%
Above tour avg
● Ajla Tomljanovic has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Robin Montgomery ML
-112
Model: 46%
Edge: -6.3%
Ajla Tomljanovic ML
-100
Model: 54%
Edge: +3.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (3-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Ajla Tomljanovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ajla Tomljanovic 53.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →