Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Arthur Fery 0 - Roman Andres Burruchaga 0. Arthur Fery is favored with a 57.1% win probability.
Arthur Fery
1513
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Roman Andres Burruchaga
1502
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Arthur FeryRoman Andres Burruchaga
Grass
Surface
Eastbourne
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Eastbourne
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Arthur Fery
Arthur Fery leads by 11 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Roman Andres Burruchaga SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
Arthur Fery SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
● Arthur Fery has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML
+330
Model: 43%
Edge: +19.6%
Arthur Fery ML
-391
Model: 57%
Edge: -22.5%
Model Projection
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML +330 · +19.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (11-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Arthur Fery has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fery 57.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →