Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Auger-Aliassime 0 - Roman Andres Burruchaga 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 52.1% win probability.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Roman Andres Burruchaga
1504
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix Auger-AliassimeRoman Andres Burruchaga
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 146 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Roman Andres Burruchaga SPW
60.2%
Below tour avg
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
59.6%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML
+219
Model: 48%
Edge: +16.5%
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-252
Model: 52%
Edge: -19.5%
Model Projection
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML +219 · +16.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 146-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Roman Andres Burruchaga has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 52.1%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →