Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Luciano Darderi prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Luciano Darderi 0 - Roman Andres Burruchaga 0. Luciano Darderi is favored with a 57.9% win probability.
Luciano Darderi
1653
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Roman Andres Burruchaga
1504
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Luciano DarderiRoman Andres Burruchaga
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Luciano Darderi
Luciano Darderi leads by 149 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Roman Andres Burruchaga SPW
60.6%
Below tour avg
Luciano Darderi SPW
63.0%
Below tour avg
● Luciano Darderi has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML
+619
Model: 42%
Edge: +28.2%
Luciano Darderi ML
-742
Model: 58%
Edge: -30.2%
Model Projection
Roman Andres Burruchaga ML +619 · +28.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Luciano Darderi holds a commanding 149-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Luciano Darderi has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Luciano Darderi 57.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →