Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Jessica Pegula prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jessica Pegula 0 - Sara Sorribes Tormo 0. Jessica Pegula is favored with a 75.8% win probability.
Jessica Pegula
1787
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Sara Sorribes Tormo
1495
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jessica PegulaSara Sorribes Tormo
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.8% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula leads by 292 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Sara Sorribes Tormo SPW
56.1%
Below tour avg
Jessica Pegula SPW
63.2%
Above tour avg
● Jessica Pegula has a significant serve advantage (+7.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Sara Sorribes Tormo ML
+1304
Model: 24%
Edge: +17.1%
Jessica Pegula ML
-2222
Model: 76%
Edge: -19.9%
Model Projection
Sara Sorribes Tormo ML +1304 · +17.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jessica Pegula holds a commanding 292-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jessica Pegula has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jessica Pegula at 76%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jessica Pegula 75.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →