Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jenson Brooksby 0 - Sebastian Baez 0. Jenson Brooksby is favored with a 54.4% win probability.
Jenson Brooksby
1635
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Sebastian Baez
1566
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jenson BrooksbySebastian Baez
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (1,622 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Sebastian Baez
Jenson Brooksby
Jenson Brooksby leads by 70 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Sebastian Baez SPW
64.5%
Above tour avg
Jenson Brooksby SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
● Sebastian Baez has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Sebastian Baez ML
-315
Model: 46%
Edge: -30.3%
Jenson Brooksby ML
+280
Model: 54%
Edge: +28.0%
Model Projection
Jenson Brooksby ML +280 · +28.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jenson Brooksby has a moderate 70-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Sebastian Baez has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jenson Brooksby 54.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →