Sebastian Ofner vs Hamad Medjedovic prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hamad Medjedovic 0 - Sebastian Ofner 0. Hamad Medjedovic is favored with a 60.7% win probability.
Hamad Medjedovic
1512
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Sebastian Ofner
1438
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Hamad MedjedovicSebastian Ofner
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Sebastian Ofner
Hamad Medjedovic
Hamad Medjedovic leads by 74 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Sebastian Ofner SPW
65.7%
Above tour avg
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
67.6%
Above tour avg
● Hamad Medjedovic has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Sebastian Ofner ML
+163
Model: 39%
Edge: +1.2%
Hamad Medjedovic ML
-188
Model: 61%
Edge: -4.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Hamad Medjedovic has a moderate 74-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamad Medjedovic 60.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →