Simona Waltert vs Camila Osorio prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Camila Osorio 0 - Simona Waltert 0. Camila Osorio is favored with a 53.3% win probability.
Camila Osorio
1532
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Simona Waltert
1500
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Camila OsorioSimona Waltert
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Simona Waltert
Camila Osorio
Camila Osorio leads by 32 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Simona Waltert SPW
57.1%
Above tour avg
Camila Osorio SPW
56.2%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Simona Waltert ML
+163
Model: 47%
Edge: +8.7%
Camila Osorio ML
-192
Model: 53%
Edge: -12.5%
Model Projection
Simona Waltert ML +163 · +8.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (32-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Simona Waltert has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Camila Osorio 53.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →