Sofia Kenin vs Amanda Anisimova prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Amanda Anisimova 0 - Sofia Kenin 0. Amanda Anisimova is favored with a 57.8% win probability.
Amanda Anisimova
1758
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Sofia Kenin
1526
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Amanda AnisimovaSofia Kenin
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Sofia Kenin
Amanda Anisimova
Amanda Anisimova leads by 231 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Sofia Kenin SPW
60.2%
Above tour avg
Amanda Anisimova SPW
58.7%
Above tour avg
● Sofia Kenin has a slight serve edge (+1.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Sofia Kenin ML
+527
Model: 42%
Edge: +26.2%
Amanda Anisimova ML
-660
Model: 58%
Edge: -29.0%
Model Projection
Sofia Kenin ML +527 · +26.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Amanda Anisimova holds a commanding 231-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Sofia Kenin has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Amanda Anisimova 57.8%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →