Solana Sierra vs Emma Raducanu prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Emma Raducanu 0 - Solana Sierra 0. Solana Sierra is favored with a 55.8% win probability.
Emma Raducanu
1639
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Solana Sierra
1494
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Emma RaducanuSolana Sierra
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Solana Sierra
Emma Raducanu
Emma Raducanu leads by 145 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Solana Sierra SPW
56.0%
Below tour avg
Emma Raducanu SPW
53.4%
Below tour avg
● Solana Sierra has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Solana Sierra ML
-150
Model: 56%
Edge: -4.2%
Emma Raducanu ML
+131
Model: 44%
Edge: +1.0%
Key Matchup Factors
- Emma Raducanu holds a commanding 145-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Solana Sierra has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Solana Sierra 55.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →