Stan Wawrinka vs Raul Brancaccio prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raul Brancaccio 0 - Stan Wawrinka 0. Raul Brancaccio is favored with a 50.9% win probability.
Raul Brancaccio
1561
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Stan Wawrinka
1420
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Raul BrancaccioStan Wawrinka
Hard
Surface
ATP Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,366 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Stan Wawrinka
Raul Brancaccio
Raul Brancaccio leads by 141 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Stan Wawrinka SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
Raul Brancaccio SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
● Stan Wawrinka has a slight serve edge (+1.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Stan Wawrinka ML
-193
Model: 49%
Edge: -16.8%
Raul Brancaccio ML
+166
Model: 51%
Edge: +13.3%
Model Projection
Raul Brancaccio ML +166 · +13.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raul Brancaccio holds a commanding 141-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Stan Wawrinka has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raul Brancaccio 50.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →