Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Federico Coria prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Federico Coria 0 - Stefanos Sakellaridis 0. Stefanos Sakellaridis is favored with a 57.4% win probability.
Federico Coria
1468
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Stefanos Sakellaridis
1475
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Federico CoriaStefanos Sakellaridis
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Federico Coria
Stefanos Sakellaridis leads by 7 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Stefanos Sakellaridis SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
Federico Coria SPW
64.4%
Above tour avg
● Stefanos Sakellaridis has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Stefanos Sakellaridis ML
-675
Model: 57%
Edge: -29.7%
Federico Coria ML
+470
Model: 43%
Edge: +25.1%
Model Projection
Federico Coria ML +470 · +25.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (7-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Stefanos Sakellaridis has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Stefanos Sakellaridis 57.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →