Susan Bandecchi vs Katarzyna Kawa prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Katarzyna Kawa 0 - Susan Bandecchi 0. Katarzyna Kawa is favored with a 59.1% win probability.
Katarzyna Kawa
1508
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Susan Bandecchi
1512
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Katarzyna KawaSusan Bandecchi
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.4% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Susan Bandecchi
Katarzyna Kawa
Susan Bandecchi leads by 4 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Susan Bandecchi SPW
54.6%
Below tour avg
Katarzyna Kawa SPW
56.8%
Above tour avg
● Katarzyna Kawa has a slight serve edge (+2.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Susan Bandecchi ML
+420
Model: 41%
Edge: +21.7%
Katarzyna Kawa ML
-482
Model: 59%
Edge: -23.7%
Model Projection
Susan Bandecchi ML +420 · +21.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (4-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Katarzyna Kawa has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katarzyna Kawa 59.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →