Tamara Korpatsch vs Alina Charaeva prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alina Charaeva 0 - Tamara Korpatsch 0. Alina Charaeva is favored with a 52.5% win probability.
Alina Charaeva
1500
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Tamara Korpatsch
1500
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Alina CharaevaTamara Korpatsch
Hard
Surface
WTA 125k Paris - R16
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (2,225 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA 125k Paris - R16
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Tamara Korpatsch
Alina Charaeva
Tamara Korpatsch leads by 0 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Tamara Korpatsch SPW
56.6%
Above tour avg
Alina Charaeva SPW
57.0%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Tamara Korpatsch ML
+110
Model: 48%
Edge: -0.1%
Alina Charaeva ML
-133
Model: 52%
Edge: -4.6%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alina Charaeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alina Charaeva 52.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →