Teodora Kostovic vs Rebecca Sramkova prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rebecca Sramkova 0 - Teodora Kostovic 0. Teodora Kostovic is favored with a 54.0% win probability.
Rebecca Sramkova
1496
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Teodora Kostovic
1480
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Rebecca SramkovaTeodora Kostovic
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Teodora Kostovic
Rebecca Sramkova
Rebecca Sramkova leads by 16 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Teodora Kostovic SPW
62.9%
Above tour avg
Rebecca Sramkova SPW
60.3%
Above tour avg
● Teodora Kostovic has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Teodora Kostovic ML
+112
Model: 54%
Edge: +6.8%
Rebecca Sramkova ML
-134
Model: 46%
Edge: -11.2%
Model Projection
Teodora Kostovic ML +112 · +6.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (16-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Teodora Kostovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Teodora Kostovic 54.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →