Terence Atmane vs Flavio Cobolli prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Flavio Cobolli 0 - Terence Atmane 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 63.1% win probability.
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Terence Atmane
1413
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Flavio CobolliTerence Atmane
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (1,969 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Terence Atmane
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli leads by 253 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Terence Atmane SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
Flavio Cobolli SPW
60.9%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Terence Atmane ML
+240
Model: 37%
Edge: +7.4%
Flavio Cobolli ML
-278
Model: 63%
Edge: -10.4%
Model Projection
Terence Atmane ML +240 · +7.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Flavio Cobolli holds a commanding 253-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 63.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →