Terence Atmane vs Thanasi Kokkinakis prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thanasi Kokkinakis 0 - Terence Atmane 0. Terence Atmane is favored with a 53.8% win probability.
Thanasi Kokkinakis
1527
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Terence Atmane
1413
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Thanasi KokkinakisTerence Atmane
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Terence Atmane
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Thanasi Kokkinakis leads by 114 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Terence Atmane SPW
62.3%
Below tour avg
Thanasi Kokkinakis SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Terence Atmane ML
-271
Model: 54%
Edge: -19.2%
Thanasi Kokkinakis ML
+229
Model: 46%
Edge: +15.8%
Model Projection
Thanasi Kokkinakis ML +229 · +15.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Thanasi Kokkinakis holds a commanding 114-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Terence Atmane has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Terence Atmane 53.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →