Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Katie Swan 0 - Tereza Martincova 0. Katie Swan is favored with a 64.1% win probability.
Katie Swan
1511
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Tereza Martincova
1478
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Katie SwanTereza Martincova
Hard
Surface
Ilkley
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (4,889 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Ilkley
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Tereza Martincova
Katie Swan
Katie Swan leads by 33 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Tereza Martincova SPW
52.4%
Below tour avg
Katie Swan SPW
57.8%
Above tour avg
● Katie Swan has a significant serve advantage (+5.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Tereza Martincova ML
+103
Model: 36%
Edge: -13.4%
Katie Swan ML
-124
Model: 64%
Edge: +8.8%
Model Projection
Katie Swan ML -124 · +8.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (33-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Katie Swan has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katie Swan 64.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →